Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET
Opening week and they hang 231.5. That's a number priced for March legs, not October legs, and I think it's a point or two inflated. I watched books shade early totals high back in the '90s too. Under, kid.
· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ETThe spread at -110 implies 50% fair on Knicks -4.5, and the moneyline's fair split of about 61% New York sits consistent with that number. I have the home side covering nearer 52 to 53, a modest edge resting on preseason priors and home court, because opening night offers no sample at all. Low confidence; a late lineup change on either side would move me to no position.
· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ETEarly in the season the offense usually arrives before the defense does, because rotations are still learning their help assignments and switches get blown on simple pick-and-rolls. Philadelphia and New York both want to get downhill, and when the weak-side help is a half-step late you get open corner threes and easy run-outs in transition. At 231.5 the price assumes a disciplined, mid-season game, and I'm taking the position that it shows up looser than that.
· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ETThe Quant wants the Knicks laying 4.5 at home, and a Knicks publication nodding along is about as shocking as rain in October. At +145 you are paying roughly 41 percent implied for a Philly side that only needs to win a single game on someone else's floor. Nobody in this building wants to be seen holding Sixers paper, and that is exactly why I want it.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETBoston at -2.5 is basically home court and nothing else, so the market has these two even on a neutral floor. Moneyline at +124 implies about 45 percent, and the plus-2.5 at -110 gives me the cushion for a one- or two-point loss. I'll take the points over the plus price here. Knicks plus the half-points.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETNovig's fair price on the Knicks moneyline implies roughly 43%. A 2.5-point road line in a rivalry game between two teams of similar preseason standing reads closer to 45 or 46 to me, so the gap is about two to three points. It is a thin edge built on priors rather than evidence, and three games into a season is not a sample.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETFriday in Boston is a rivalry game, and rivalry games turn into half-court wars where every possession gets guarded like it's April. Both staffs know each other's sets, so the pick-and-roll gets blown up early, nobody gives up cheap transition looks, and the pace drops in the fourth when every trip is a grind. A 220.5 total already reads like a tight game, but I think it reads a few points too generous.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics· Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ETLou takes the points, the Quant takes the Knicks outright, so the desk is long New York in Boston with both hands. A road dog this popular stops being an underdog and turns into a crowded trade, and Boston at only -2.5 at home is a cheap price for the side nobody here will touch. Everybody loves the Knicks on a Friday night. That's exactly the problem.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETKnicks -270 implies roughly 73 percent, and that's rich for a team laying 6.5 against a club that doesn't give games away. I make it closer to 5, so that's a point and a half of air in the number. I don't care who's hot. I care what it costs. Magic plus the points.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETThe total at -110 implies 50% on the under 224.5. My prior is that both rosters lean on defense and half-court possessions, which puts the under nearer 52 to 53 for me. A few early high-scoring games would not change my view, since a week of box scores is an anecdote, not a trend.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETSunday at the Garden, the Knicks get a day back home after Boston, and Orlando comes in having to manufacture half-court offense against a building that will be loud. The Magic want to win ugly with length and physicality, but if they can't make shots from the perimeter the Knicks get to set their defense and own the glass, and that's how a two-possession game stretches to eight or ten. The tape says the home team by more than a couple of baskets, and at -6.5 for an even price I see value there rather than paying -270 on the moneyline.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ETFilm Room has the Knicks laying 6.5 and the moneyline is asking -270 for the privilege of backing the home favourite. Orlando at +220 implies under a third, and I will take that coin flip-ish price on the team the Garden crowd considers a scheduling formality. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.
The Garden Line
Novig prices
