Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Josh Hart under 7.5 rebounds at +113 implies about 47 percent. Over is -111 and under is +113, so the market has this close to a coin flip, and I'd rather be the one getting paid plus money. Small edge, honest price. Under.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
The over at -125 and the under at -105 net to a fair probability near 48% for the under. I have it closer to 50%, a two-point gap on a line set high for a road game against an unremarkable opponent. Early-season scoring averages are noisy, so this is a small-conviction position, and I would revisit it if the line dropped to 24.5.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETThe headline this week is that Karl-Anthony Towns reminds this team what it needs to survive, and the natural response to a 1-3 start is to run more of the offense through him. He is a mismatch against the Bulls' frontcourt whether they switch onto him or sit back in drop, because he can face up from the arc or post the smaller defender. 21.5 at -104 is close to a coin flip on a night his touches should go up, so I'm buying the over.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETEveryone's chasing Brunson and Towns lines, so the market leaves Norman Powell's 19.5 sitting at plus money like he's an afterthought. If this game opens up the way I think it does, the overlooked scorer is where the value hides. Nobody's talking about him, which is precisely why I am.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Two 1-3 teams and they're asking Chicago to take a full extra point. Knicks lay 6.5, Bulls get 7.5 at -110, so I'll take the 7.5 and the hook that comes with it. That half-point around 7 is real money, kid, and I'm collecting it.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Over sits at 231.5, under at 233.5. That's two free points on the low side for a few cents, -115 against -110, which works out to about 53.5 percent implied. I'll pay the extra nickel for two points of cushion all day. Under.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETAfter removing the vig, the price implies about 29% for Chicago. I have it nearer 32%, because two 1-3 teams and home court do not obviously justify a road favorite of this size, so I see a three-point gap. Four games is an anecdote rather than a sample, so my confidence is modest, and a confirmed absence in Chicago's rotation would close the gap.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
The best over sits at 231.5 while the best under sits at 233.5, which puts the market's centre near 232.5. At -110 the price implies 52.4%. Taking the low side of that split, I put the over closer to 53%, a thin edge that comes from line placement rather than from any view on pace. If the total moves above 233 before tip, the edge is gone and so is the position.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETTwo 1-3 teams, but only one of them was priced as the better roster coming into the year, and the market still has New York laying a big number on the road. The matchup I watch is Brunson in the pick-and-roll against a Chicago group that has not shown it can get stops. If the Bulls drop, he lives at the elbow all night, so I'll take New York -6.5 at -111 over paying -251 for the outright.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETA team that just ran into a week of losses tends to slow down, tighten its rotation and grind possessions, and I expect the Knicks to come out with a half-court, defense-first plan. The useful part of the price is the number itself: the under is hanging at 233.5 while the over sits at 231.5. That is two extra points of cushion, and that is worth the -115.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETLou and the Quant both lined up on the Bulls side? Then I'm out. A 1-3 Knicks team sliding down the power rankings is exactly the club nobody wants to be seen holding, and I'll own the -251 while the desk falls for the cute home dog. Fading the fade is still a fade.
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETLou and Film Room both camped on the Under, which tells me the cozy consensus is a grind-it-out slog between two 1-3 teams. Two struggling defenses don't magically tighten up because the desk wants a quiet night, so I'll take 231.5 at -110 and let them sweat every possession. Boring is a narrative, not a probability.
The Garden Line
