Jalen Brunson says his slow Knicks start is about missed shots, not his surgically repaired wrist

Jalen Brunson isn't blaming his surgically repaired left wrist for the worst shooting start of his Knicks tenure. After practice Tuesday, the captain gave the New York Post a short diagnosis: "Missing shots I normally make." Asked how much the offseason tendon surgery has affected him, he said it hasn't at all.

His numbers are well below his usual standard. The Post has Brunson at 39.3 percent from the field, 33.3 percent from three and 73.2 percent at the line. Over a full season, the first two would be the worst of his career. The surgery came right after the championship run and cut deeply into his summer shooting work, so rust was always going to be the obvious explanation. Brunson won't use it.

The tracking data mostly supports him. According to the Post, the mix of his shots looks a lot like last season's: about the same share of pull-ups and catch-and-shoot looks, similar shot distances and a similar split between open and tightly guarded attempts. The real drop is late in the shot clock, where he usually rescues possessions. He is shooting 26.7 percent with seven to four seconds left, down from 48.8 percent last season, and 35.7 percent with under four seconds left, down from 46.6. As a team, the Knicks rank second-worst and worst in the league in those two windows.

Mike Brown takes the same view. The coach told reporters Brunson is taking the same shots he always has. Brown said he doesn't want to overanalyze it, and that if the team keeps getting good looks, they will start falling. That fits a larger pattern. ESPN has described a Knicks offense that keeps falling behind early and then rallying, and it ranked near the bottom of the league in efficiency during an 0-3 start that was unusual for a defending champion.

What it means against Chicago

The Knicks are 3-4 and have won three of their last four, most recently a 103-90 home win over Brooklyn on Monday. The only loss in that stretch was 98-93 at Philadelphia. A win Wednesday at Madison Square Garden would bring them back to .500. Chicago comes in 1-6, and Posting and Toasting notes the Bulls have the league's worst point differential. Still, Chicago played New York close a week ago, when the Knicks won 133-127 at the United Center after falling behind early again.

The board has New York as a heavy favorite. Novig lists the Knicks at -525 on the moneyline and the Bulls at +506. On the spread, Novig has New York favored by 11.5 at -104. The best Chicago number anywhere is FanDuel's +12.5 at -110, a full point more than Novig's +11.5 at -100. Across the 12 venues, the total runs from 232.5 at BetRivers to 234.5 at theScore Bet, and Novig sits at 233.5. Sportsbook hold ranges from 2.9 to 5.7 percent across the three markets.

The late-clock numbers are the ones to watch. If Brunson's shot selection is as sound as he and Brown say, a weak Chicago defense is a good place for his tough late-possession shots to start falling again.